Two Polymarkets
Polymarket started as a crypto platform where people traded on elections, news and sports using a digital dollar. In 2022 the CFTC fined it $1.4 million for running an unregistered platform and ordered it to stop serving Americans. After federal investigations closed without charges in 2025, Polymarket bought a licensed exchange and won approval to return. Polymarket US launched in December 2025 and opened to everyone in May 2026. The international site, which is still the bigger of the two, keeps blocking US users.
What the law says
In the US, Polymarket US is a federally regulated exchange, so it stands or falls with the same court fight as Kalshi, which is over whether sports contracts are financial products or bets. States aren’t waiting. Tennessee and Illinois sent cease-and-desist letters in January 2026, a Nevada judge granted the state’s gaming regulator a temporary order against it the same month, and Missouri followed in September.
Much of the world has already decided. Polymarket restricts or blocks users in around 39 countries, including the UK, France, Germany and Australia. France ordered internet providers to block it in July 2026, Spain did the same in May, and the UK Gambling Commission says these products look like betting exchanges that need a gambling licence.
What the numbers say
Because the international site runs on a public blockchain, researchers can see every trade, and the picture is consistent. A Wall Street Journal analysis of 1.6 million accounts found more than 70% lost money and 0.1% of accounts took 67% of the profits. Galaxy Research found that 69% of retail accounts were below break-even, with sports traders doing worst.
What it means for you
Polymarket is interesting as a source of odds on world events, and you can learn a lot just by reading it. Trading on it is different. The people making money are a small group of professionals, and if you’re buying sports or news contracts on a hunch, they’re the people on the other side of your trade.
Questions people also ask
Can Americans use Polymarket?
Yes, through Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange that relaunched in December 2025 and opened to everyone in May 2026. The original international site still blocks US users.
Why was Polymarket banned in the US before?
In 2022 the CFTC fined it $1.4 million for running an unregistered platform for event-based binary options and ordered it to stop serving US users. It came back after buying a licensed exchange in 2025.
What are Polymarket's fees?
On Polymarket US, takers pay a fee that peaks at about 1.74 cents per share when the price is 50 cents. People who place resting orders get a small rebate.
Do most Polymarket traders lose?
Yes. Studies of its on-chain data find that roughly 69% to 84% of accounts lose money, and a tiny fraction of accounts takes most of the profit.
Sources
- ANJ, Promotion of illegal gambling services, blocking of the Polymarket website (2026)
- Spanish Ministry of Consumer Affairs, proceedings and block against Polymarket and Kalshi (2026)
- CFTC orders Polymarket to pay $1.4 million (2022)
- CNBC, DOJ and CFTC end Polymarket investigations (2025)
- CoinDesk, Polymarket secures CFTC approval for regulated US return (2025)
- Polymarket help centre, geographic restrictions
- Illinois Gaming Board cease-and-desist letter to Polymarket (2026)
- CoinDesk, France orders internet providers to block Polymarket (2026)
- CoinDesk, Spain shuts out Polymarket and Kalshi (2026)
- UK Gambling Commission, prediction markets, here's what you need to know (2026)
- Yahoo Finance (WSJ analysis), most prediction market traders lose money
- Prediction News, Galaxy Research finds 69% of Polymarket retail accounts lose money
- Polymarket US fees
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